A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
